A state of emergency has been declared in Tunisia amid protests over corruption, unemployment and inflation.

The immediate problem is that the violent protestors are interested only in the government and the President resigning, right now. The President has done so.

These protestors are mainly young and many of them educated sufficiently to have expectations that in the present circumstances are unlikely to be fulfilled in the Tunisian economy. But they are not interested in discussing any political or economic programme or jobs created by the government. Their opinion of the credibility of the government and their President is such that they are intent now on bringing the establishment to its knees, but it is far from clear that they have the ways and memans to replace it. They are 'fed up with broken promises', mainly, it appears, because while promising better times the establishment has lived high on the hog.

As we know, communist parties have been feared in many countries ever since communism was associated not just with revolution but the end of free elections through instituted totalitarian dictatorship. The promise of better times through market economics and continual growth has therefore held the ring for many decades now; but the sharing of wealth through trickle-down was ever more dependent on growth regardless of the availability of resources and the ability of the environment to supply them and absorb the waste. Top-down application of tough management and a return to the economics of the shopkeeper will now see what is happening in Tunisia as a risk to be faced in a number of countries where the leadership cannot carry its people with it through the next decade as the world adjusts to a new phase, but the Communist label is unlikely to be the banner under which any future revolution will achieve political ascendance.

The family of a detained Tunisian leftist still has no news of his fate two days after police snatched him from his home and now fears for his life, his daughter told AFP on Friday.
Hamma Hammami, 59-year-old leader of the banned Tunisian Workers' Communist Party (POCT), was grabbed on Wednesday amid mounting street protests against President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's authoritarian regime.
"We still have no news of my father. We fear for his life and for that of one of his lawyers, Mohamed Mzem, who was taken at the same time as him," said Nadia Hammami, speaking to AFP during a visit to France.

A critical moment has arrived and it has to be said that the Thomas Cook and Thompson travel companies are right to extract their customers.

TUNIS (AFP) – Tunisia braced Friday for public reactions to a shake-up of the cabinet aimed at quelling huge daily protests that have called for a clean break with the regime of ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

The UN Security Council has backed a no-fly zone over Libya and "all necessary measures" short of an invasion "to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas".

That was the right way to do it, but it is also important to understand that the Security Council went along because they all realised that if they had not, we would have done it anyway. The global social contract is valid only if enforced. If those fuckwits who are asking 'if here, why not everywhere' are still asking and are really too dim to figure it out, the answer is because it is not possible to do it everywhere at once, and not possible find the means in particular places or the people to do it, but everywhere it is possible the appropriate action should be taken. This is the appropriate action in this case in Libya. It is very late because well-meaning ignoramuses make it so difficult to do the right thing at the right time in the right place. That is because their conception of life, the universe and everything is less than childish - indeed that is an insult to children.

All the caveats and problems are well understood, and Gaddafi will threaten us all with terror and revenge from now to eternity, I have no doubt. He could do no other. By his own lights he is doing the right thing.

There will now be a chorus from those who say it will be impossible to know how much force the UN has sanctioned by those acting under its resolution. Regime change, they will say, is not the aim. So if Gaddafi pulls his cease-fire stunt, can we take out his tanks? The answer is obviously yes, as he is going to use them against his own people, nobody else. There is no way any other country is going to invade Libya, the UN would happily approve its defence by the same players now defending its civilians. Libya is not going to invade any other country. So until Gaddafi decides to renounce terrorism publicly his tanks could be taken out if they are seen to pose a threat, such as they would if they went anywhere near Benghazi or anywhere else in Libya other than their own bases.

Rory Stewart wants a coalition including Brazil, India, etc etc. If they wish to join and give support, fine. But most countries just want to keep their heads down. The aim, in this case, is regime change unless the regime stops threatening crazy behaviour. At the moment that is the reverse of the actual position. The ceasefire declared by a spokesman for the Libyan 'regime' is not happening.

Media gurus are desperate to claim along with Cameron that this is nothing like Tony Blair's 'Iraq adventure'. In fact, it is far more precipitous and unplanned. Never has an action been more discussed than the invasion of Iraq. Unfortunately because of those who did not approve of it, no postwar planning was permitted while there was a chance of calling off the invasion itself. This operation risks being a cock-up because it is too sudden and too late, due to the crippling stupidity of the same lawyers who think criminals, or the more than averagely deluded, or those with nothing to lose, give a tuppenny damn for the law if it is not enforced when it clearly can be. Cock-up or not, it needs to be done.

MARCH 19th 2011
Thanks to the delay over the past weeks in taking any significant action, Gaddafi has managed to get tanks into the urban areas and now it seems even into Benghazi. They can be attacked from the air there only with great difficulty and risk of collateral damage, a route we are only too familiar with in other cases. This means that 'all necessary action' as required by the UN could mean retaliation against Gaddafi's assets outside urban areas, wherever they are, until his tanks are withdrawn back to their bases.

Those who claim that there is a clear plan, an end-game strategy, and an objective that will define success are still dreaming of a world they were taught as obedient pupils in business school or the military. Great ideas to aim for whenever possible; but join the real world and learn how it came into being. It is a great enterprise, not subject to the level of thinking that gets either applauded or booed by the audience of Question Time. There is a chance now for skills and courage to make the best of the worst of times but the local, the individual and the short term future are always uncertain. As for those physicists who say that somewhere there is a version of the world where it all goes well, or really disastrously, regardless of the one you experience, dear reader, they are mistaken. Watch and learn or, if you are in the thick of it, good luck.

[While on the subject of UN intervention, it is painfully obvious that Mugabe in Zimbabwe should have been dealt with with UN authority on the grounds that he was murdering and torturing and wrecking his whole country; but it was and is impossible because (a) there is no way to separate the combatants, (b) the political lead at the UN cannot be taken by ex-colonial powers, whose 'guilt' of some sort is assumed on the grounds that their behaviour fell short in the past of ideals set by a mix of academics in ivory towers and those who claim to have been dispossessed of something they either never had in the first place or had lost anyway and (c) 'boots on the ground' that could be trusted are hard to find these days in the numbers required, let alone a command structure to control them in Zimbabwe. That leaves a coalition of willing African states, and where there's a will there's a won't.].

Gaddafi's reponse to an attack on his military is to threaten civilians, throughout Europe and America, as well as in Libya. In these circumstances it is hard to understand see how claims of hypocrisy agains the UN or the coalition hold up. It looks to me as if the right thing is being done everywhere it can be. If you look back to the entry here on Fen 28th you will see that I trusted the no-fly zone was being prepared out of sight so it could be ready when the political mood was right. It was.

Attacks on Gaddafi's air defences and other military targets commence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12796972
As expected, he claims innocence, victimhood and that invaders are after Libya's oil, somehow forgetting the world pays for the oil and Libya gets the money, it's up to the Libyan government who they contract with to extract it and on what terms, and the Libyans will be able to choose their government once he steps down, even if it takes a while to run elections.

MARCH 20th 2011
I assume the worst case scenario now is that Gaddafi somehow manages to keep control, through finance and fear, of his regime. He could try to cutt off food, electricity and water from urban centres held by opponents. He will arm those who claim to support him and encourage them to terrorise and snipe against there opponents and destroy their assets. That, plus attempted revenge terrorism against assets of UN members supporting the UN resolution, constitutes a typiclal bad case scenario which needs to be faced. A better case is that his supporters take a positive view to a new interim constitution and a period in which order can be regained and elections prepared with UN help and full support from the international community. That would require some tribal cohesion and a rapid reorganisation of state fiinance to keep things running. Unfortunately, many key people who could manage that may have left the country. As I have already said, this will be a big mess whatever the scenario, but the current stage had to be reached even if there is stalemate for a bit.

After an attack by French planes, some 14 bodies were lying near destroyed military vehicles outside the rebel-held city of Benghazi, Reuters says.

His comments are significant because the Arab League's support for the no-fly zone was a key factor in getting UN Security Council backing for the resolution authorising the move.

"What is happening in Libya differs from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone, and what we want is the protection of civilians and not the bombardment of more civilians," said Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa.

Hmmm... I would have though the people next to the destroyed military vehicles attacking Benghazi would be military, not civil, unless they were captured humn shields strapped to the vehicles, or civilian bodies placed there by Gaddafi's troops to produce the desired evidence. They have plenty of bodies to put there after all. Before the UN force was operations Gaddafi's forces were killing civilians in Benghazi.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/before-the-un-hits-back-a-city-burns-2247224.html

French aircraft resume enforcement of the no fly zone. There are no unauthorized flights.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12800635
but we can expect all and every desperate measure from those who are tied, willing or unwilling, to Gaddafi's support and destiny. He will have no rules to play by so we can expect the worst.

10pm: In yet another contradiction Gaddafi's army spokesman announces yet another ceasefire:

TRIPOLI (AFP) – Explosions rocked Tripoli Sunday as allied forces tightened enforcement of a UN resolution aimed at halting Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi's attacks on civilians in suppressing a month-long uprising.

As warplanes took off from Italian bases and anti-aircraft guns roared in the Libyan capital, Kadhafi's army announced a new ceasefire, saying it was heeding an African Union call for an immediate cessation of hostilities.

"I sincerely hope and urge the Libyan authorities to keep their word," United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said in a swift reaction during a visit to Libya's eastern neighbour Egypt.

"They have been continuing to attack the civilian population. This (offer) has to be verified and tested," he told a news conference in Cairo.

MARCH 22nd 2011 Mid-day
The inhabitants of Misrata are now in hell. That is not good. But barring boots on the ground from a seaborne invasion it is hard to see how to get a grip. Gaddafi has cut off foo, water and electricity as he was certain to do.That is not to say that if we had done nothing it would have been better. Far from it. Gaddafi will encourage civil war with mastery, knowing that those he arms will stick together like glue, murdering even their previous friends if they can keep alive by so doing. He has flattened a mosque in Misrata. An American fighter has crashed an hour's drive out of Benghazi due to mechanical trouble. Crew are OK.

MARCH 23rd 2011
The commander of British aircraft operating over Libya has said that Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's air force "no longer exists as a fighting force".

Maybe so, and very efficiently done, but don't forget we are in the era of asymmetric warfare.

MARCH 24th 2011
NATO takes over the No Fly operations. Other measures to try to protect the civilian population remain the prerogative of the ad-hoc coalition as now, which appears to be able to work together quite well. More than 350 planes involved in the whole operation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12856665

Nato will be able to take over command of the entire military operation in Libya within days, according to UK Foreign Secretary William Hague.

He said he had "every expectation" the alliance would assume full command, instead of enforcing only the no-fly zone and the arms embargo.

Coalition forces are into a seventh day of military action over Libya to enforce the UN resolution.

"If the Gaddafi regime think the international will and unity on this is faltering in any way, they are in for quite a surprise," he said.

MARCH 26th 2011 - evening
Libyan rebels have pushed on westwards after recapturing the key oil town of Ajdabiya from Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's forces.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12872718

Now we get to a difficult and dangerous moment. Difficult and dangerous in the short term and in the longer term. In the interests of the country the Gaddafi 'regime', if that is the right expression for it, should negotiate. It should not expect its soldiers to take part in a civil war in which one side has air cover and the other not, and where its soldiers are at risk if they obey orders, while they (the regime) murder those who do not support them and pretend the UN and its enforcement agents are responsible. What happens next at Sirte will give a guide to what could be done. They have to look forward to a Libyan population that is reconciled personally and tribally and defended by a unified army that can defend the country from external intrusion by terrorists or other hostile elements. It's a big place, but its manageable for a number of reasons due to, as well as in spite of, limited roads and structural assets.

NATO takes full charge of air operations over Libya
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12876696
I hope it goes well and casualties are held to the minimum. I hope that those who took part the discussions on the EIES system in New Jersey in the 1980s, when such NATO operations were anticipated, will remember what was said. The point was made that if we succeeded as some of us intended to end the Cold War, NATO would have to remain until an even wider based organisation was formed to enforce UN resolutions. Gaddafi's spokesman pretends the operations are no longer necessary as their army is no longer attacking. However, this not true for Misrata in the west and since key oil ports and refineries in the east are now in the hands of the rebel provisional authorities and troops we must assume they intend to attack in due course if they have the means to do so. If they were to declare otherwise publicy at the UN, that would be another matter.

MARCH 28th 2011
I am not in the least surprised that Sirte has stopped the rebels in their tracks. None of the other towns they 'took' had any Gaddafi supporters anyway. Sirte probably has nothing but Gaddafi supporters, since they are relatwed to him utterly dependent on him and have been doing OK by him. If the rebels want to go in and talk, unarmed, they may be welcomed. They might well decide that was far too dangerous and they would never be able to leave. But NATO can't help them here.

Indeed the BBC's Ben Brown's absurd triumphalist reporting of how NATO has been effectively the rebel airforce has served to really mislead the rebels and the international community. NATO could now have to defend civilians in Sirte and Tripoli if they were shelled by the rebels!

However, I am quite sure the 'rebels' have no intention of doing that. They wish only to have their country freed from a ruthless dictator who, far from being unpredictable as pundits and politicians keep repeating, is only too predictable. He intends to continue to rule the tribes of Libya and the various social layers of Libya, and to ignore any move to the type of constitution that exists in other countries, while pretending to be the powerless supporter of the Libyan people, enshrined by their love. Misrata is now the place where a crucial stage in this civil war is to be resolved.

Once again, media reporting and media perceptions play an unwanted role in publicly estimating the rectitude or inappropriateness of military actions and thereby affecting the motivation of the unfortunate people caught in the crossfire, usually causing casualties on both side, prolonging and fostering distrust and enmity, all in the cause of having their brave reporters bring the world the news. I can just about take John Simpson, but not much else.

MARCH 29th 2011
It is quite obvious that unless and until Gaddafi's army deserts him, the no-fly operation can only ensure a stand-off. Even a no-drive zone cannot get Gaddafi to go if his army remains loyal and other citizens cannot undermine it. This is the point I have made from the start.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12889271

Jock Stirrup has made the point today: the UK needs to limit its commitment to allow for other contingencies, so this no-fly zone cannot go on indefinitely with the resources now allocated for UK defence forces as a whole.

The London conference today on the Libyan question will no doubt address the problems.

Strikes on Libya will continue until Col Gaddafi meets UN terms, stops attacking civilians and pulls back his forces, the US's Hillary Clinton tells a meeting of allied leaders in London
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12889119

I have to say that the gung-ho media reporting and what looked like on-the-ground approval and encouragement of hopelessly undermanned and underequipped Libyan citizens has caused them to be overstretched and now as a result they have had cruel reverses and lost some small towns they had gained.

As I write this, William Haig has just finished a very competent intoduction to the news-conference at the end of the London Conference. He has introduced the PM of Qatar, who summed up the position, thanked the countries enforcing the UN resolution 1973. 40 countries are represented here.

The questions which followed were extremely well, and fully answered by both the UK Foreign Secretary and the Qatar Prime Minister.

The illegitimacy of the Gaddafi regime was agreed by all those who supported the UN resolution, all at the conference and naturally all the countries involved in the implementation. Sweden, not a NATO member, has today joined the last category. That is why, in spite of great difficulties, the policy is not falling apart.

Next we heard from Hillary Clinton, who pronounces the T in parTners as a T, I am glad to report, thereby presenting a reasonably cowboy-free face of America. The fact that most of her other Ts are Ds is of course necessary for any US public speaker trying to come over as cool, powerful but kind, polite but not to be messed with.

She also fielded question very well. Asked for a timeline, or a definitive future for Gaddafi other than arrest and trial at the very end, Mrs Clinton admitted there were too many unknown elements to give any certain answers to those questions. On the arming of the Libyan opposition she said the International Community was just getting to know the Provisional Transitional Council representing free Libya; that the UN resolution did not forbid arming or financing but at the moment there was an arms embargo that was holding firm and there had been no discussion at the conference on supplying arms.

One reality remains, which I will repeat one more time: the Libyan population is not politically united, tribally or otherwise. Unless steps are taken to design a better outcome, with dialogue that leads to a new constitution, the country that was united under a tyranny will remain in civil war one way or another even if Gaddafi were to go. We should not forget that all the worlds democracies emerged from bloody civil wars - and latterly they were bombed into democracy. There is no other way. All we can hope for is to get it over with as quickly as possible in this modern age, as 100 years wars are out of date given modern technology. As a pacifist at heart, I have never been as deluded as those who thought there was ever another way to peace but war until we reach a new level of awareness.

MARCH 30th 2011
If, as according to NATO/US/Coalition forces, Gaddafi's "Command and Control has been seriously degraded or destroyed", it doesn't seem to make much difference. Are we on the same planet here?

UQAYLA, Libya (AFP) – Loyalist forces overran the Libyan oil town of Ras Lanuf on Wednesday, scattering outgunned rebels as world powers debated arming the rag-tag band of fighters seeking to oust Moamer Kadhafi.

AFP reporters quoting rebel fighters said Kadhafi's troops swept through Ras Lanuf, strategic for its oil refinery, blazing away with tanks and heavy artillery fire soon after dawn.

Panicked rebels fled in their hundreds through Uqayla, 20 kilometres (12 miles) east of Ras Lanuf, calling for coalition air strikes on Kadhafi's forces.

"We want the French to bomb the (Kadhafi) soldiers," said fighter Ali Atia al-Faturi, as the sound of shelling and gunfire grew louder. Hundreds of cars and pickup trucks sped from Uqayla towards Brega, the next main town, some 240 kilometres (150 miles) south of the rebel stronghold Benghazi.

"We are facing a big problem. We are pulling back," said another one fighter, Salama Dadida.

"Kadhafi's troops are firing rockets and tank shells," he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110330/wl_mideast_afp/libyaconflict

This is now a complex situation. If Gaddafi's forces are 'blazing away with tanks and heavy artillery' to retake Ras Lanuf, were there no civilians their to protect?

It would seem to me that these forces should have been informed by air-drop that the should desist or be halted by airborn attack. It was folly to encourage the rebel forces to remove the lightly armed garrison only to have it replaced by an imprgenable, heavily armed one. Again, this encouragement did not come from our armed forces, it would appear, but by the blasted media.

Gaddafi's personal fate is up to his own countrymen and women
http://news.yahoo.com/video/world-15749633/24703053

MARCH 31st 2011
A propos of my last remark, we now have an extreme example: Moussa Koussa, a man previously not only close to Gaddafi but involved in his security service, a man who by following Gaddafi's lead has (allegedly) approved of extra-judicial executions, has decided to jump. He took a private flight from Tunis and handed himself in to the UK government.

Due to the history with which he is connected dating back quite a few years now, he is being held in secure surroundings during his interrogation. He is not being offered immunity and asylum or freedom in the UK, but he is offered the protection of the law. What does that mean? He will not be treated brutally in any demeaning way but may, depending on the case he makes prima facie, be detained until he is brought before a national or international judge, charged with specific crimes. From my point of view, if this was the man who negotiated with the UK to bring Libya out of the nuclear danger zone, he has a lot that can be said in mitigation. As a Libyan he was working patriotically for his country and many a man has made a few mistakes doing that. If he helps to avoid unnecessary strife and death now, it would be perverse to punish him unduly.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12917315

Meanwhile back in Libya, the freedom-fighters and their cause are still suffering from the catastrophically foolish advances they made when they had not the slightest chance of consolidating and holding the towns and ports that welcomed them, misled by the usual American guff of premature victory based on 'degradation of the command and control' of Gaddafi's military. When will these pompous prigs learn that terror and self-interest overrule any technological command and control system, and when will they stop encouraging simple suffering inhabitants of the Old World from rushing to their destruction, prematurely following daft American dreams.

I have no doubt that through the 'fell chance of circumstance' and 'bludgeonings of chance' a greater freedom and democracy will emerge across the Old World. But as the good Al Haig once reminded us, "America was spawned in violence". It seems they are intent on others emerging into the new world in similar pain. They have not even learned the lesson of Vietnam - a great success they see as a failure, carried out with a total lack of comprehension of what was happening or why, with, as a result, incredible human and ecological damage to both sides. I am not saying it could have happened any other way, just that the lesson was never understood - that technology alone is powerless. They are doing the right thing, and they are as so often, doin' it wrong. It can of course come through OK.

APRIL 1st 2011
Civilian casualties: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12931731
Moussa Koussa profile: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12915987

It should be obvious to anyone with half a brain that Moussa Koussa has been a man who throughout his whole life has done what he believed to be the right thing. He thought the IRA were 'the good guys', as did many who saw only the errors made at times by the protestant majority in the North of Ireland, or by the British army who went to protect the Catholics and ended up, under pressure, firing mistakenly on the unarmed. The situation, historical perspective and emotional position of individuals is subjective to a degree dependent on the intensity of their experience.

No doubt in the 1970s and for some time after he saw Gaddafi as the only hope for a united Libya, the lesser of far from ideal or democratic options. Over the years, he learned a lot and became a sadder, wiser man. He talked Gaddafi into compensation for Lockerbie, offering up a man for trial, and agreeing to cease a nuclear programme. But after publicly announcing a ceasefire during the current civil war, only to see it broken by the man he represented, it was clear he continued only under protest and ended up withdrawing his support for Gaddafi and his followers. No man starting out in life as Moussa Koussa, living and remaining in Libya and doing his best, could have achieved very much more in the circumstances.

APRIL 3rd 2011
As a reminder of the subjectivity of the human experience, it is useful for the reader to peruse the following, whiuch refers to the current happenings in Cote d'Ivoire which I have made a point of not commenting on. There are those who are for ever talking about 'double standards', and ask why there is intervention in Libya but not simultaneously in all the other places on the surface of the planet where civilians are under threat from soldiers, or their governments, or even themselves.

Ivorian state TV, which is controlled by Mr Gbagbo, accused French troops of preparing a genocide like the one in Rwanda in 1994, when more than 800,000 people were killed.

A strap line on state TV on Sunday read: "[French President Nicolas] Sarkozy's men are preparing a Rwandan genocide in Ivory Coast. Ivorians, let us go out en masse and occupy the streets. Let us stay standing."

Mr Sarkozy has called a cabinet meeting for Sunday afternoon to discuss the crisis in Ivory Coast.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12950467

I make no comment other than to observe interventions that have to be approved and second-guessed domestically by the spoiled citizens of the developed western countries, whose governments are held to account by the world as well as their own electorates, are unsurprisingly kept to a minimum. It is also worth while remembering that anywhere a reasonably stable multiparty democracy exists today, it has been either the outcome of civil wars fought to a standstill or an external bombing campaign, or both. However, the international community is actually FAR MORE involved in the Ivory Coast than it is in Libya and has been for some time, with UN forces on the ground. The result is still chaos, civil war and massacres. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12951990

APRIL 3rd 2011
A Turkish hospital ship is treating the wounded from Misrata
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12953538

APRIL 6th 2011
Gbagbo is now holed up in his cellar, still refusing to admit he lost the election, ready to surrender only on his own unacceptable terms and asking for UN protection. The reply will be a major assault in the building to get him out, alive if possible.

In Libya, Misrata is suffering. I am afraid we were so slow off the mark Gaddafi manged to get too much armour into the town and/or hidden. This is going to be a tough one. Gaddafi's troops are disguiding themselves as rebels. Meanwhile we hear from the ICC:

The government planned to crush protests by killing civilians even before the uprising in Libya broke out, the International Criminal Court says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12983054

On Wednesday afternoon, it reported that British jets had hit targets around Sirte and Misrata, attacking armoured fighting vehicles and tanks.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12993962

APRIL 7th 2011
The commander of Libya's rebel forces has said Nato apologised for mistakenly hitting a column of rebel tanks near the eastern town of Ajdabiya.

Even though NATO was informed of the movement of these troops, the news apparently did not get to the pilots.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13008244
Why? Inadequate communications systems.

APRIL 8th
Nato has refused to apologise for a "friendly fire" attack on rebel tanks in eastern Libya that killed at least four people.

Rear Adm Russ Harding said that, until Thursday's incident, Nato had not been aware that rebel troops had started to use tanks.

I find that hard to understand. The whole world knew they had a few tanks. There is clearly a failure to set up proper intelligence and communication systems.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13010170
in any event, actively refusing to apologise, thereby blaming it on those on the ground failing to communicate clearly, is going much too far in the other direction. Soldiers are not necessarily diplomats, The Rear Admiral in question should be removed from all microphones, if he is to remain in command. That is if.

APRIL 10th
24 Tanks were destroyed by NATO in the past 24 hrs, as they attaccked Misrata and Ajdabiya. I think we got the right ones this time; but the battles continue.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13029165
Calls for a cease-fire grow.

Late night news: Gaddafi in talks with African leaders has accepted term for a possible cease fire and a 'roadmap' for ending the conflict. The African delegation will travel to Benghazi tomorrow to meet the Interim Provisional Authority.

APRIL 11th 2011
Gbagbo has at last been found and arrested.
There is now a chance, at least, of peace and reconciliation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13039825

APRIL 13th 2011
Mubarak is detained and accused of embezzlement of state funds in Egypt. He denies this. In Ivory Coast the recently elected leader has taken control and the arrested Gbagbo has advised his supporters to cease hostilities and work for reconciliation.

In Lybia, matters are more complex. A conference has been called in Qatar for representatives of the region, NATO etc who wish to see Gaddafi go to discuss the next stages. The BBC's James Robbins says it a concisely as possible:

There are three main areas of discussion in Qatar. Firstly to intensify pressure on Col Gaddafi to leave office. Britain, France and others would like to see specific language in the documents from this meeting saying that he has to go. The last meeting in London merely said that he had lost legitimacy. Getting agreement on that could be quite difficult.

The second thing is to look further into Libya's future and give more active encouragement to political development by the opposition - so they can offer a more fleshed-out alternative to Col Gaddafi. The third thing is the possibility of setting up an international fund so countries can donate money directly to help support essential services in rebel-held cities.

See the BBC's fuller report: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13058694

Later: The Qatar meeting calls for Gaddafi to go: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13058694

AJDABIYA, Libya – NATO launched new airstrikes Wednesday on targets held by Moammar Gadhafi as rebel leaders urged a stronger air campaign that will allow them to advance on Gadhafi's territory.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110413/ap_on_bi_ge/ml_libya

APRIL 14th 2011

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated Moscow's view that the UN resolution on Libya did not authorise the use of force.

He was speaking at a meeting of the "Brics" group of five emerging nations - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

After the meeting in China, the five said they shared "the principle that the use of force should be avoided".

I don't agree. The UN resolution authorises the measures necessary to prevent Gaddafi's forces from carrying out his declared objective of invading all the towns that resist his un-ligitimised and now illigitimate rule, and killing or imprisoning (killing was what he advocated) all of the inhabitants. That, in my book, is not just the 'use of force' by Gaddafi. It is using tyranny and terror to maintain an illigitimate regime. He will have his supporters, no doubt, who he has kept financed. Nobody in Tripoly is going to stand up just now either as an alternative leader or to head a rebellion, it would be folly. Such is the nature of tyranny and terror.

Meanwhile NATO Foreign Ministers meet in Berlin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13074189

They say they need more planes and pilots - have a look here

APRIL 16th 2011
In my opinion the gloves have to come off now. I do not think a further resolution is required, or any more parliamentary discussion. It is obligatory to stop Gaddafi. UN approval would be nice, and would bring credit on the UN, but it its absence is not excuse for moral turpitude by Britain France and the US.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13107131
and we would be guilty of that if we hid behind the paralysis of of the UN. I would be the first to admit that without our boots on the ground it is very difficult. So, what's new about that?

APRIL 17th
Cameron has confirmed once again that we are not going to put boots on the ground. That means we are going to be a lot smarter in the air and in our financial and technical support for those on the ground opposing Gaddafi. It is rather difficult these days to distinguish between stupidity and lack of legitimate self-interest. The international community is dependent on its world-wide security in trade, these days, to provide a level of employment that maintains the peace, domestically as well as internationally. Our liberal-minded lawyers believe that (for example) making piracy illegal will prevent it happening. When are they going to be put out to grass so that we can get to grips with the real world? There are no deterrents that work against people who have no safe haven if they follow the law. The social contract, domestic and international, is only valid if it is enforced by the sovereign power. The way to deal with pirates is to blast them, not arrest them. The same will apply in other circumstances on land. The really appalling error is in waiting foir things to get out of hand before enforcing this. As a result hundreds, maybe thousands of innocent people will die, as collateral damage on the sea and on land.

APRIL 18th
Misrata fears massacre: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13102164
All the UK can do is help evacuate some wounded and migrant workers: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13115874

APRIL 19th
British military officers will be sent to Libya to advise rebels fighting Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's forces, the UK government has said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13132654
That will not help them much in Misrata. In Benghazi it could help with communications and logistics.
No doubt we will hear complaints about 'mission creep' and 'lack of an exit strategy' now from people who have not only no real political or military knowledge but need to be told that the whole of life on this planet and evolution itself is mission creep, that there IS NO EXIT STRATEGY, and that is the beginning of wisdom. 'Doing the right thing' will always be costly. We could lose. But if we want to build on our European heritage of an attempt at civilization, we must see it through, whatever it takes and however long.

APRIL 21st 2011
For some reason Gaddafi's spokesman has apologised for the death of a British and a US cameramen/reporter. Hard to understand, when they have been slinging shells and mortars around regardless of who they hit. There has been some progress by the rebels near the Tunsiam border, and the US has approved the use of drones, which give a better low-level close-up view of embedded and hidden positions of Gaddafi's troops and material.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13166441

APRIL 22nd 2011 Here is the problem I foresaw on February 20th. If the tribes unite against Gaddafi, he must fall. If they do not, it is another ball game altogether

Libya crisis: Misrata tribes 'may fight rebels'

Fighting in Misrata has claimed hundreds of lives with no sign of a breakthrough for either side

Tribes loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi have said that if the army cannot drive rebels from the besieged port city of Misrata, they will, a senior official says.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13173628

But perhaps they might join the rebels if what they want is for trade and commerce to recommence.

Why is it that western politicians and military advisers appear to be oblivious of the consequences of the disruption to trade and commerce caused by military interventions. Misrata, sitting where it does next to Tripoli as a major commercial hub and port, has been brought to a standstill. The tribal chiefs of western Lybia and their followers cannot maintain their economic structure, so even if they would be glad to see the back of Gaddafi, like Mussolini he keot the trains runs running. Fascism and tryranny, 'if it gets the pigs in', is better than war at a stalemate. The only solution the west ever had in a hiatus like this was American Money, to hold the fort till Misrata is back on-line. But America doesn't have any of its own these days, so that would be the IMF?. Looks like time for Germany to come up with a Mars(c)hall plan - trouble is Germany is still dithering on whether to save the EU...... Yes, you are right, we just have to stop talking 20th century economics and think global, while keeping the accounts properly and never again à la Grèque or Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.

The big Libyan question now is this: do the tribes whose economic existence is threatened by the disruption in Misrata just want the disruption to cease, or do they want Gaddafi to remain? Gaddafi has conflated the two, to confuse us.

If Gaddafi were to withdraw his troops and the tribes/tribal representatives were welcomed in, unarmed, and commerce in Misrata to recommence, that would satisfy their real needs - unless Gaddafi has them on a system of payola that genuine trade and commerce cannot continue to provide. If that is the case, an unsatisfactory temporary financial hiatus has to be fudged to maintain the peace, as has been done elsewhere, until a real economy builds. Because Libya has oil, this is however quite possible. The support plan would be only temporary. We should call Gaddafi's bluff on this. To get Libya 'running' again all those who left will have to return. Gaddafi cannot keep the rtribes happy if Libya is not fully functional, and it cannot be fully functional again now unless he goes.

APRIL 25th 2011
An attack on Gaddafi's headquarters is, as far as NATO is concerned, obviously a legitimate target as long as he persists publicly in launching attacks on the people of Misrata. It is hard to see how it can be regarded as personal. All he has to do to avoid NATO strikes is to stop the attacks on Misrata. It seems he was not there anyway, but the aim to deny it as an operations base has been achieved. Another aim would have been to tell all those who assemble to plan attacks on Misrata that they are a target wherever they are.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13184594

APRIL 29th 2011
There is nothing to write here about the wretched happenings in Syria. Without a powerful confident leader to control the police and army, and speak properly to the people in language they can understand, the events that are occurring are hardly surprising. There is little action the EU, the UN or others can do at this juncture.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13234557

The problem the Syrian regime has is easily demonstrated here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Syria

The regime does not have a solution, the population, growing rapidly in numbers and exopectations are rebelling against their rulers, whose only response is to enforce order through force and fear.

APRIL 30th 2011
A Nato spokesman said the strike had hit a "known command and control building in the Bab al-Azizya neighbourhood".

Libya says it was an attack on Gaddafi and family. Reporters ay it was an armed bunker but was equipped for habitation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13251570

Be in no doubt Gaddafi knows exactly what places are likely to be struck by NATO, which places are ambiguous, and where he decides to put himself and members of his family so as to either survive or act as shields or as a propaganda weapon. The NATO targets are sites directly implicated in directing the mass killing of civilian populations. All this could stop tomorrow of course if Gaddafi used his authority to cease these deliberate killings.

MAY 16th 2011
So, where have we got to?
Misrata has been through terrible times but may be turning the corner. Unfortunately the dilemmas facing NATO and the countries supporting the relevant UN resolution have not diminished. The military planners say we have to increase the pressure now, significantly, to avoid settling into a stalemate. We have to make it easy for the Libyan people to see Gaddafi will not be their leader at the end of this and that it is time to face reality and move to a better future. There is political backing for this in the NATO countries involved in active strikes who do not want a longer continued conflict. On the UN side, there are voices wishing to avoid any further suffering by the civilian population, who call for a cease fire to allow access to supply medical aid and food. This would be ideal, but Gaddafi has shown what he does in a cease-fire so he would have to make the first move. There is a third movement stemming from the ICC that intends to issue an arrest warrant for Gaddafi, which is why he has now gone to ground where, he says, he cannot be found except in the hearts of his loving people.

If we rule out the future being a Libya returned to the control of Gaddafi and his economic management of tribes and supporter through offers they can't refuse, then the sooner we bring courage to the population that the alternative outcome is the only one that will bring adequate peace and stability. If infrastructure of strategic value to Gaddafi has to be destroyed, the sooner any infrastructure necessary for a return to economic stability is repaired, and the key personnel who have fled the country can return, the better.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13408931
Gaddafi's regime obviously intends to ignore any ICC warrant, not being a signatory.

MAY 26th 2011
Gaddafi's people are trying to sell a new plan for peace after a continuation by NATO allies of the pressure on his military installations. They will get some support from Russia no doubt. The G8 summit, expected top deal with important global issues, will have it attention now diverted to managing the fallout of the Arab Spring as it is now known. The money needed to fund the emergent Arab societies is, unfortunately, in the bank-accounts of the old Arab societies or the cofferes of the new growth nations that are not in the G8! That is quite funny (for those with a sense of humour) and quite a headache for the IMF and associated organastions. Christine Lagarde has always been the top of my list. Nobody is more realistic yet imaginative or competent. I hope she is elected.

They also have an E-G8 to discuss the Internet, of which I approve. Freedom is not anarchy. The technocrat Internet enthusiasts believ technology, not regulation, can solve the problems of abuse. Those of us with experience of the real world (remarkably lacking amongst some young technos as we have witnessed) know that technology can ONLY solve problems in a non-anarchic context. With some wisdom, even better and freer. In France there has never been the Two Cultures divide to the same extent as in parts of the anglo-saxon world. We should listen and learn. It's a two-way-plus dialogue. I am a Sarkozy supporter - that means talking and doing imaginative things and in so doing avoid later regulation to correct a position wrecked by negelect.

MAY 27th 2011

TRIPOLI (Reuters) – Russia joined Western leaders on Friday in urging Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi to step down and offered to mediate his departure, in an important boost to NATO powers seeking to end his 41-year rule.

It was a striking change in tone from Kremlin criticism of NATO air strikes in Libya, which are officially intended to protect civilians in a civil war but have effectively put the West on the side of rebels seeking Gaddafi's removal.

Good. A careful but important and helpful move.
and more....
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110527/ts_nm/us_g8
G8 has got a broad combination of countries to save the new democratic regimes from financial collapse. It's essential.

JUNE 4th 2011
British Apaches and French airborne forces put in some precision attacks on Gaddafi's key facilities, while Hague is in Benghazi talking to the 'rebels' about the political roadmap.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13655288

JUNE 7th 2011
Here, in a nutshell, is the problem with Gaddafi. First he announces he has no choice but to stay in his country, dead or alive. Well that's fine. All he has to do is declare a real cease fire and agree conditions that he can be taken into protective custody of his choosing under some international supoervision, as he steps down from his position which is, although he denies it, head of state and and commander of the army - and has been for just a bit too long. However, he then says he wants to fight to the death.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13688003

and here is why Gaddafi has his supporters: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110608/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_libya_pro_gadhafi_women

As is all such instances, all over the world, support goes largely on the 'what's in it for me' basis.

JUNE 11th 2011 SYRIA
Turkey has risen to the occasion magnificently to offer sanctuary to refugees from Syria, where Assad has clearly lost control to his ruthless brother and the group who do not believe in relinquishing their autocratic rule and will stop at nothing to impose it. It is never easy to accept change when centuries of history have piled up evidence against the suitability of western style democracy for eastern or middle-eastern countries. Nevertheless, now the world has a global cultural interconnection through cyberspace, change is inevitable. Unfortunately successful progress is far from assured.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13737141
I do not know how the above link will update, but Turkey is expanding it refugee camps as I write and equipping them to a high standard.

JUNE 12th 2011
I am very glad to hear on BBC's World at One on BBC Radio 4 today that it is understood that the absence of economic and cultural progress in depth, in formerly suppressed countries, has not prepared them for an instant social-democratic, sustainable future. In the hiatus, al Qaida and other destructive and violent movements can cause serious trouble. As long as this is fully understood, the international community can act sensibly and supportively through what looks a really rough period.

June 16th 2011
Jeremy Bowen on The World at One (BBC Radio 4) said it all in just a minute or two. There is no going back, it will take time, it is still going to hurt. 5-10 years before free and fair elections can lead to a functioning democracy in most of these places. 7 days left to listen: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b011x1q1
Meanwhile in the immediate scene:

TRIPOLI, Libya – Hours after NATO airstrikes pounded the area near Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's compound again before dawn Thursday, Russia's envoy to Libya turned up at a bombing site while on a visit to Tripoli for talks on ending the civil war.

Italy's foreign minister, meanwhile, said his government was calling together tribal leaders from all parts of Libya for a meeting to promote reconciliation.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110616/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_libya

JUNE 17th 2011
Morocco - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13816974
Syria - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13812882
Libya - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13815393

JUNE 19th 2011 Libya Summary

Nato has flown more than 11,000 sorties since operations began, including almost 4,400 strike attacks against government targets across Libya.

Its mission - to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya to protect civilians using "all necessary measures" short of a ground invasion - began in March in response to Col Muammar Gaddafi's violent response to an uprising.

It was mandated by the UN, and led by France, Britain and the US until the end of March, when Nato took over.

Having initially been given 90 days - which would have run out on 27 June - the mission has been extended for a further 90 days.

Libyan rebels hold a third of the country in the east and pockets in the west, including Misrata, although Tripoli remains under government control.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13828762

Nato has admitted "a weapons systems failure" may have led to civilian casualties in Sunday morning's air strike in the Libyan capital, Tripoli.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13833752

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110620/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_libya

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/new-missile-will-kill-fewer-civilians-2300285.html

JUNE 20th 2011
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad maintains a tough line in the face of anti-government protests, but says a national dialogue on reform will begin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13835393

It is very hard to get inside the heads of the different players in the Syrian drama. It started from a position of rigidity and historic stasis into which the 'modern' world intruded interactively. Each group has reacted to this unplanned intrusion and its outcomes. It will take time and a fair amount of hurt before anything better emerges but dialogue, or jaw-jaw as Churchill called it, is better than war.

JUNE 24th 2011
The Libyan rebels in the east are in close contact with an underground network of opponents of Col Muammar Gaddafi in Tripoli, the BBC has learnt.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13898754

JUNE 27th 2011
The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi, accusing him of crimes against humanity.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13927208

JULY 2nd 2011
Gaddafi intends to strike back by sending urban guerillas abroad. This was to be expected. The moment the international community took sides in Libya's internal war, those who implemented to aerial support took this risk on board. Listening to Gaddafi trying to launch this initiative over loudspeakers in public, we heard the voice of a man who has lost all restraint. He has lost family and friends in this conflict, which for him has always been a matter of life and death. It was ever thus.

JULY 27th

William Hague has said the UK will recognise the Libyan rebel council as the "sole governmental authority", as Gaddafi-regime diplomats are expelled.

The Libyan charge d'affaires was called to the Foreign Office earlier to be told he and other diplomats must leave.
Instead the UK will ask the National Transitional Council to appoint a new diplomatic envoy.
It follows similar moves by the US and France. The UK previously said it recognised "countries not governments"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-14306544

We have military and political stalemate just now but I am optimistic on the outcome. The problem is Gaddafi himself. Now indicted by the International Court, internal refuge for him in Libya is theoretically ruled out. Exile is a problem as he refuses even if there were a country happy to take him and ignore the International Court. So troubles still lie ahead.

JULY 30th 2011
Two days ago...

Libyan rebel commander Gen Abdel Fattah Younes was shot dead by a militia linked to his own side, a rebel minister has said.

Ali Tarhouni said Gen Younes was killed by members of the Obaida Ibn Jarrah Brigade, which is an Islamist group.

It has taken 2 days to establish the facts, whch indicate the rebel command is infltrated by Islamic hard-liners, enemies of both Gaddafi and a new secular state. Their aim is to discredit European and world support for a new Libya free from tyranny of any sort. Gaddafi will use the episode to claim that he alone can hold Libya together. He could even have sponsored the attack by a backdoor route. Up to the rebels now to get it together.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14352662

AUGUST 2nd 2011
The expression being endlessly repeated is that 'there is no appetite for international intervention in Syria'. Why is this so? Because unfortunately there is no coherent opposition, just a lot of frightened, rebellious citizens facing a coherent, brutal miltary machine, being wielded by an equally frightened ruling class. There is no call from the Arab states for help, either. There is effective civil war in places. The hope is, however, that peaceful resistance will eventually topple the regime. There is some common ground in the UN Security Council but very little idea of what to do. The answer is a completely united approach to Assad with a reform plan that the whole UN will back politically, and financially through the IMF and World Bank. Far too bold I am afraid to get approval.

AUGUST 3rd 2011
Egypt's ex-President Hosni Mubarak has denied charges of corruption and ordering the killing of protesters, on the opening day of his trial in Cairo.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14382997

So once again we are looking at deniability, responsibilty and the removal of those in power from the brutality of the coal-face which supports the civilization they claim the credit for. The Egyptian people will be dealing their own. They will be able to show us how they do it in the 21st century. Hosni Mubarak is no Saddam Hussein. They will have to decide what he could and should have done, and the things he ought not to have done, given the time, the means and the men at his disposal.

AUGUST 17th 2011
Lybian forces loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi are fighting rebels for control of a coastal oil refinery in Zawiya, just 50km (30 miles) west of Tripoli.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14561904
We are reaching the critical stage when Tripoli may become beseiged. That will be the moment its inhabitants must make up their mind. They will have to join a non-Gaddafian future, or fight it out. That would mean either retaking lost towns outside Tripoli or a bloody struggle for Tripoli itself.

AUGUST 18th 2011

Syria unrest: World leaders call for Assad to step down

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14577333

AUGUST 20th 2011
Explosions and sustained gunfire have been heard in parts of Tripoli, as rebels close in on the Libyan capital.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14605391

AUGUST 21st 2011
In Tripoli, there are up to 100.000 soldiers bound to defend Gaddafi until they get different orders. There are a great many people whose bread is buttered by a Gaddafi-led regime. There are tribal loyalties that bind as well as those that confront, and after all, in Tripoli we must expect to find the crews that would rather go down with the ship as they fear for their future in a Gaddafi-free world.

It would be great if there could be a cease fire, but it looks like the only way to get it would be a long, drawn out seige of the city, offering free passage to all who chose to leave. That would require the setting up a substantial reception area and a massive support program until a consensus and modus vivendi is retored in the capital. Quite possible in the global financial scenario of a decade or two ago, but in a world where economists don't understand politics and the public is totally confused as the mathematics is way beyond them as is the politics, that's not so easy to set up.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14606618

But it seems to be going much better than I thought!

A convoy of Libyan rebels has rolled into central Tripoli past celebrating crowds after a day of heavy fighting in and around the capital.

They appeared to meet little resistance and civilians emerged to cheer them, waving flags and firing celebratory shots as they passed in their pick-ups.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14608807

AUGUST 22nd 2011

Fighting rages near Gaddafi compound

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14611549

It is not over yet. Gaddafi, having warned life will be hell if the rebels take over, will now make sure it is, through terror and sabotage. However, he may well start to lack followers.

AUGUST 23rd 2011
Libyan rebels have taken over Col Muammar Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli, one of the final areas under the Libyan leader's control.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14630702

It is quite possible that many mercenaries and other Gaddafi supporters have gone off to the mountains. There is a lot of ammunition still around somewhere. Tripoli is looking calmer now and more under control of the rebels, now recognised as the interim administration by many countries. But Gaddafi is not a man to go quietly. There are miles of underground tunnels connected to the compound.

AUGUST 24th 2011
Gaddafi is offered free passage out of the country by the National Transitional Council (NTC). That's a good move. Better out than in.
There is also a million dollar bounty on his head, dead or alive. That's a good alternative. Choice is good, we all think these days.
The NTC is due to come from Benghazi to establish an interim government but no doubt they will wait for a bit more security before arrival.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14646334

AUGUST 26th 2011
British Tornado jets fired precision-guided missiles against a large bunker in Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi's hometown of Sirte, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) has said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14677754

AUGUST 27th 2011
A week ago I pointed out that unless a different approach to invading and bringing Tripoli to its knees was adopted, there would be some problems. The breakdown of government, water supplies, electricity and many communications systems just for starters. I am not saying the approach adopted was not the least bad option, but the problems now encountered could hardly be unexpected. If the running of Tripoli depended on people who are now dead or have resigned to look after whatever hidden wealth they may have accumulated, they will need to be replaced or return to their posts. Were there once again no proper plans, or were better plans impossible?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14691061
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14693657
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14702853

AUGUST 30th 2011
It transpires that the lack of water in Tripoli is due to the cutting of electrical power at a key town where the pumping station brings water from the underground aquifer in the desert to the south. The location is still held by Gaddafi loyalists. They are presumably now playing a bargaining game.

Meanwhile Gaddafi supporters in Sirte are still refusing to surrender. They will have to if a heavy death toll is to be avoided.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14715518

SEPTEMBER 1st 2011
Libya's fugitive ex-leader Col Muammar Gaddafi says he will continue to fight his enemies, in an audio message carried by a loyalist TV channel.
Meanwhile, senior diplomats are meeting in Paris for a major international conference on Libya's future.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14753645

The conference is well timed - perfectly timed in fact. We have to give Cameron and Sarkozy top marks. It made it easy for the NTC to give Sirte another week to come to sense. If Gaddafi is not actually in that town, they can be given time to realise on their own the conflict must cease. All that is needed is that the process continue and the NTC move steadily to establish law and order, some economic norms and the essential utilities, particularly power at the pumping stations.

In calling for his followers "to fight a guerilla war" Gadaffi has effectively acknowledged in public that he has lost all legitimacy and majority civilian support.

SEPTEMBER 5th 2011
The new provisional government is being delayed by the hospitality (ha ha) being offered to Gaddafi's sons in Bani Walid, a city of some 50,000 inhabitants 150km (95 miles) south-east of Tripoli. Col Gaddafi is reputed to have a lots of support there, though the city is mixed in its make-up. It is a stronghold for the Warfalla tribe. In his defiant audio message on 1 September, the fugitive leader referred to it as "an armed fortress".

The enforcement of the 'law of hospitality' is of course just a form of terrorism, like any mafia boss uses. As soon as they can get rid of the key Gaddafi loyalists the inhabitants will accept the new interim government. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14751660

Meanwhile there are complaints raised that when Gaddafi renounced nucear weapons it was still a mistake for the UK security services to cooperate with him, knowing that he did not share our scruples on how to treat prisoners or suspects. The current head of the NTC's military forces wants an apology for his delivery by MI6 to the hands of the man whose overthrow we now approve. I guess an apology of sorts is in order, but in the circumstances any security service faced with the option of a non-nuclear Gaddafi as a friend as opposed to a nuclear one as an enemy should expect their choice to be accepted as a reasonable option. This probem has arisen with every country we have to dea with. Because of our incrediby lax and vague system of identity, immigration and residence law, we are known to be the sfe haven for thousands of people regarded elsewhere as either terrorists or criminals or individuals dedicated to the overthrow of governments we recognise as legitimate. There are no clear answers here to satisfy all sides.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14786924

SEPTEMBER 6th 2011
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14799075

An armed convoy of at least 50 vehicles from Libya has crossed over the southern desert border into Niger.

The convoy is believed to be carrying mainly Tuareg fighters recruited by fugitive Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi to fight for his regime.The new Libyan authorities say the convoy was carrying gold and money.

SEPTEMBER 13th 2011
The NTC is now established in Tripoli.
While this is not the end of the process it is now irreversible and war may continue with Gaddaffi supporters this file is closed barring exceptional events.

SEPT 17th 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14958497

OCTOBER 3rd 2011

Hundreds of residents flee Sirte

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15141177

OCTOBER 17th 2011

NTC forces claim Bani Walid advance

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15330551

Syria: 'Renewed deadly clashes in Homs'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15339705

The events in Syria are truly appalling. The regime is treating its citizens with contempt. But in this confused history the misunderstandings on all sides are immense and catastrophic.

OCTOBER 20th 2011

Muammar Gaddafi killed in Libya

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15389550

Now we hear from victims how all the evils, murders, rapes and corruption were his responsibility and can now cease, forgetting that he was just one man, a man who led and had followers. When will people learn about themselves and what can happen to so many of them if they don't wise up. John Simpson says "There were two Gaddafis....." Yes, we are told there were two Hitlers.... The truth is power is given by followers and though few can handle it, some are more worthy of it than others - very much so.

OCT 21st
I was about to congratulate the French Air force on wiping out Gaddafi's convoy and reducing him to hiding in a drain when we learn it was an accidental bonus. They did not realise he was in it, they were just carrying out their UN job of taking out an armed contingent that was a risk to civilians and the new provisional government.

Now we have the UN concerned about how Gaddafi died - whether it was in a military confrontation or of he got into the hands of those bent on his death, as painful and undignified as possible. Personally, I would find it difficult to criticise in the heat of the moment.

This morning we had Richard Harries, retired Bishop of Oxford and a very dear old boy, telling us (in this context for some reason) how 'unfair' the world is, and how the great religions believe that God will administer justice and 'put everything right' in the end. I really must disagree about this concept of a faulty and unfair world.

What we do have is what appears in some aspects an unforgiving world, and one in which humans can find themselves in very great distress through, apparently, no fault of their own. But any decent analysis of the human condition reveals something much more complex and consequential than a faulty or unfair matrix. It reveals a journey of nature in which the possibilities are commensurate with the burdens. Where these are offered and where they fall is, I am happy to say, beyond the casual fathoming of those involved on a calculable basis. On the matter of forgiveness we, as individuals, can be forgiving if we choose. I suggest we should be discriminating in our forgiveness and relate it to our powers and obligations. I have always thought The Lord's Prayer was a remarkable piece of work, the deepest understanding of which would stretch to the very extremes of space and time

OCTOBER 22nd 2011
Contrary to this report http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15412529 it is perfectly clear what happened to Gaddafi. he was dragged wounded out of the drain where he was hiding and set upon by the local militia. Gaddafi supporters surrounding the position engaged in a firefight, the militia commander was not fully in control of a very fast moving situation and by the time he extracted Gaddafi frpm the melee the latter had taken one or two more shots which proved fatal. Although he was alive in the ambulance and taken non-stop to hospital he was there pronounced dead.

It it quite obvious that although he should ideally have been taken alive this outcome is by far the best, as the charges against him and the victims of his years in power are so many that to have a selection of them grandstanding in court would have been inappropriate and to have had all of them impractical. Enough - let us move on. The commander of the militia involved, an electrician turned soldier for the purpose of the liberation, has quite correctly taken reponsibility for Gaddafi's death. I am impressed, and I expected no less.

OCTOBER 24th 2011

Libya's new rulers declare country liberated

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15422262

NOVEMBER 13th 2011
The Arab League votes to suspend Syria from its meetings and impose other sanctions over its failure to end a government crackdown on protester
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15706851
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15635867

NOVEMBER 20th 2011
In Cairo, the first election, for a parliament, is due in a week; but the people are divided, impatient, and some believe the Army will not be able to hand over to a credible civil authority.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15809739

NOVEMBER 22nd 2011
There is no meeting of minds in Cairo. The military do not believe that Egyptian youth really understand the facts of life. The youth, do not understand the reservations of the old school. At the interface in the squares of Cairo, the police are faced with violent rioters who may or may not be genuine or planted by vested interests. One thing is certain, it has taken too long for the Cairo intelligent youth for the election to come, even if in historical terms it has been a rush job. To what extent the hot-house of Internetted Cairo reflects all-Egypt it is hard to say, but we have a big mess. There is a generation gap as well as all the other gaps possible.

Egypt military pledges to speed up power transfer

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15843425

NOVEMBER 26th 2011
My diagnosis of a generation gap between the Egyptian military establishment and the Egyptian youth has been confirmed. They are in a different world.

NOVEMBER 28th 2011
Large numbers of Egyptians have turned out to vote in the first elections since former President Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in February.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15914277

While some Egyptians are sceptical and believe the Army will remain in control, it may well be that more than 50% hope that the Army will indeed remain in control even while civilian democracy learns to develop and implement policy.
The election seems to have gone off well. The result will not be known for some time

DECEMBER 19th 2011
Things are not going well in Egypt. As pointed out 3 weeks ago the country is divided, largely it has to be said between the young and the Internetted and the mature and old (including some Internetted). It was inevitiable. Accelerating history in catchup mode is going to come at a cost, and there is a lot for those who are not the recipient of a good education in history, geography and the sciences to understand - the first being that a good education in history, geography and the sciences will not necessarily guarantee you a job in a free market economy. Democracy does not guarantee employment. Things will not get easier, as there is no reason they should for the moment unless everyone goes home and gets on with whatever they should for the moment. The implementation of constitutional changes should be in the hands of a body that can accept proper questions and give proper answers as to progress, plans and timing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16243609

JANUARY 7th 2012
While Syria is in bloody turmoil despite an ongoing visit from the Arab League, in Lybia progress is maintained.

Libyan students return to Gadhafi-free schools

By BEN HUBBARD, Associated Press

TRIPOLI, Libya (AP) — More than 1 million Libyan students returned to school Saturday to start the first year in which the whims, politics and wacky philosophies of Moammar Gadhafi will not drive the curriculum.

Gone are the days when history books lauded Gadhafi's accomplishments while blasting "Fascist" Italy, the "Zionist" United States and the "devilish" West, Libyan officials said.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/10029837

JANUARY 11th 2012
A member of the Arab League delegation to Syria has resigned describing their situation as a farce and condemning the actions of the Syrian regime.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16516135
The Syrian President remains defiant. The awful truth is that he sees no possibility of an opposition government resulting in less bloodshed than his own. The ineffective presence of the Arab League observers has increased the violence. The only achievement has been to further publicise the awfulness of the process.

JANUARY 18th 2012
I have no answer to what to do next in Syria except to work for a coherent UN Security Council position. The Arab league have done all they could but without any success. Very difficult to know who is doing what and why in that country.

There is some lately released news of what went on in Lybia during the overthrow of Gaddafi, not that it could possibly apply to te Syrian case
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-16573516

JANUARY 28th 2012
The Arab League monitors have withdrawn to their hotels for safety reasons.
Jeremy Bowen, the BBCs most well informed correspondent on Middle Eastern matters, is not optimistic that a serious civil war can be prevented. If so, this could be an example of civil unrest that may be more common in a coming period of upheaval and an incentive for those who develop weapons technology to turn their talents to means of non-lethal restraint of violence.

nnnn

Glenn Greenwald - Writing in SALON - Monday, Feb 28, 2011 09:29 ET

U.S. shields foreign mercenaries in Libya to protect Bush officials